This Israeli action is massively escalatory. 


The Israeli claim to have killed the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will reinforce their belief that this is their greatest triumph yet against their great enemy.

They have mobilized more soldiers, they seem to want to pick up the pace and may even be thinking about a ground incursion into Lebanon.

Over the last 11 months, there has been an ongoing tit-for-tat between both sides, though with more pressure from the Israelis.

But now they have decided they are going to push, and they will be delighted with what they have done, because, unlike the war against Hamas, which they did not expect, they have been planning this war since 2006 and are now putting those plans into effect.

There are massive challenges now for Hezbollah, whether or not this report from the Israeli military regarding their leader is correct.

Their rockets have been landing again in Israeli territory this morning and targeting areas further south, so they are pushing back – but this is a massively uncertain period and that’s part of the danger.

The predictability of the war of attrition that went on for months and months meant people knew where they were. They absolutely do not now.